SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): Super Bowl Indicator - Denver Broncos V. Seattle Seahawks equals Bulls Win!

Wall Street must be convinced that the Denver Broncos are going win Super Bowl XLVII. January performance has been a reliable, not perfect, but reliable indicator for the entire year's performance. The saying on the street is "As January goes, so goes the year."

According to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Jue Xiong and Stephen Suttmeier, when January ends in the red, the S&P is down for the year 58% of the time with an average loss of 2.3%.

So how does January's performance tie into the Super Bowl? There's a quirky market predictor called the Super Bowl Indicator. It goes like this, when the AFC team (Broncos) wins, the stock market goes down. And, when the NFC team (Seahawks) wins, equities head higher.

According to Investopedia, "historically speaking the Super Bowl indicator boasts an 80% accuracy rate." Whoa – 58% and 80% accuracy, bulls better pull out all the superstitious stops for the Seattle team. Go get 'em Russell Wilson, it's payback, falling way back in the draft, turn nothing into something, straw into gold, soon to be champ! (Hat tip MM).

Now, both teams have been in the Super Bowl before. Denver managed to win a couple under the guidance of John Elway while Seattle lost it lone appearance to the Pittsburgh Steelers (thanks in part to some questionable officiating.) Let's take a trip through the NFL, Super Bowl archives to see how stocks performed when this year's contestants made the big game.

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Denver:

1978 – lost to Dallas Cowboys 27-10 – S&P 500 gained 1.71% 1987 – uh oh – lost to the NY "Football" Giants 39-20 – S&P 500 gained 2% 1988 – lost to the Washington Redskins (for now) 42-10 – S&P 500 gained 12.40% 1990 – lost to the San Francisco 49ers 55-10 (ouch) – S&P 500 lost -6.56% 1998 – beat the Green Bay Packers – S&P 500 gained 26.67% 1999 – beat the Atlanta Falcons (so what) – S&P 500 gained 19.53%

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Seattle:

2006 – lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers (last cold weather host city – Detroit, look out NYC) 21-10 – S&P 500 gained 13.62%.

Based on team history, it sure looks as if Denver just being in the Super Bowl is good news for bulls. Meanwhile, who wouldn't take a 13% year if Seattle loses based on January's start.

Go Broncos – no nifty rhyme for Peyton Manning needed.